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EUROPE
ECB may review QE options
but decision could be put off until Dec– Reuters
Germany Pressures
Deutsche Bank to Speed Overhaul – BB
UNITED KINGDOM
Ashoka Mody: Plummeting GBP good news for Britain – The Independent
Soft Brexit - It's not that hard – Polemic’s Pains
Editorial: Theresa May's Confusing New 'Conservatism' – View / BB
Martin Wolf: Markets have taught May a hard lesson on sovereignty – FT
Sterling: Has the Breaking Point been Reached? – Marc
Chandler
Brexit and Britain’s dutch disease – FT
UNITED STATES
FED MINUTES
Fearful Of Losing Credibility, No Hike Was Close Call – ZH
Divided committee, hike will depend on incoming data – Danske
Bank
Fed closer to rate hike, but inflation doubts remain – Reuters
The Fed’s September Minutes, Annotated – BB
OTHER
Brexit repercussions have so far proven very limited but several
uncertainties will keep risk appetite cautious for now. The case for easier
policies remains strong for many central banks. On the tightening path, we
expect the Fed to proceed more carefully, which will mean even less upside
pressure for global yields. GBP should be close to bottoming, while oil prices
will continue to rise gradually.
The road just ahead of us could be bumpy for EM FX. The calendar is
loaded with external risks, such as the US elections and a December Fed hike,
and domestic political risks are elevated in many countries. Moreover, EM FX
correlations with risk perception benchmarks are very high. 2017 looks much
brighter, though. We are gradually becoming more optimistic about Emerging
Markets in general and EM FX in particular. We have made marginal changes to
the forecasts for MXN, HUF and TRY.
Antonio Fatás, Lawrence Summers: Conventional wisdom on supply and demand
suggests that demand shocks are cyclical or transitory, and that only
technology shocks are responsible for trend changes. This column argues that
cyclical events can have permanent effects on demand, and therefore GDP. It is
time for policymakers to start considering the possibility of hysteresis
seriously.
A New Look at Bank Capital * Does Growth Create Jobs? Evidence for
Advanced and Developing Economies * Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil
Market in the Aftermath of the 2014–16 Price Slump * 17th Jacques Polak Annual Research
Conference * IMF Working Papers
REGULARS
FOMC minutes awaited, GBP higher,
CNH yields spiking * New financial forecasts – changes to central bank calls.
Shockingly low Swedish inflation prompts a changed Riksbank call. Stronger GBP
on receding fears of a hard Brexit.
As European markets open for the
mid-week session participants will be monitoring the British pound and
wondering about the sustainability of the recovery it achieved overnight.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
May Concedes to Parliament, Sterling Rises after Pounding
Attempting to quantify the impact of
sterling weakness
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/daily-shakeup/
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Pressured By Weak
Earnings, Rate Hike Concerns; Pound Jumps
Frontrunning
– ZH
Sterling managed a sharp rally
overnight albeit one preceded by a steep selloff as May’s stance on
parliamentary involvement in the Brexit process has softened. Elsewhere EURUSD
has finally broken lower and is focusing on the 1.1000 area next.
Sterling was headed towards the 1.20
trapdoor overnight before prime minister Theresa May relented on her 'hard'
Brexit stance but was her move reflective of a genuine shift in her stance or
merely just tactical?
FINNISH
Julkaisimme
uudet keskuspankki- ja markkinaennusteet * Punta oli taas erittäin volatiili
illan ja yön kaupankäynnissä * Odotamme Riksbankin leikkaavan korkoaan
inflaation hidastuttua * Fedin syyskuun kokouksen pöytäkirjat julkaistaan
illalla